Aggression, equity and double barreling
A lot of microstakes players tend to get stuck ‘at the flop’. What I mean by that is they know how to play preflop relatively well and they know how to cbet the flop to some degree, but once they reach the turn they tend to make a lot more mistakes, and are unsure how to proceed. Not barreling enough, barreling too much in bad spots, and getting themselves in trouble with marginal hands. I hope to clear a little bit of that up for you:
When considering whether or not to double barrel, you should consider two primary things: your pot equity, and your fold equity.
Pot equity is, in short, is the portion of the pot that you expect to win on average based on the likelihood of your hand winning at showdown. It’s what you ‘own’ in the pot. If you have %60 hand equity in a $100 pot, you should expect to win $60 ($100*%60) on average when you get to show your hand down. For a more in-depth explanation, read Mr. Paulsson’s article on cardschat.
Fold equity refers to the likelihood of your opponent folding should you bet, and can be summed with pot equity to give us ‘hand equity’.
Both of these values are going to be tough to calculate with any accuracy in practice, so in-game you’ll want to make rough guesstimations in the short amount of time you’re given. Here are some examples to drive my point home:
$100.00 No Limit Hold’em – 6 players
SB: $100.00
BB: $100.00
UTG: $100.00
Hero (MP): $100.00
CO: $100.00
BTN: $100.00Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP with J
T
1 fold, Hero raises to $3.50, CO calls $3.50, 3 foldsFlop: ($8.50) 9
(2 players)
Hero bets $6.50, CO calls $6.50
Turn: ($21.50) 2
(2 players)
Hero bets $15
We flop a monster draw; worst case scenarios for us would be if we were against AK or a set, in which case we’d have around %40 equity. We’re actually a slight favourite over two pair. We have so much equity in this hand that we’re happy to get our whole stack in on the flop, and we don’t have to worry about how bad that turn card is for is with respect to fold equity. We just bet, and make play the river accordingly (mostly value bet when we hit, occasionally shove when we miss).
So that would be a great example of a spot where our actual hand equity is so good that we can barrel the worst of turn cards for our hand.
What about fold equity?
$100.00 No Limit Hold’em – 6 players
SB: $100.00
BB: $100.00
UTG: $100.00
Hero (MP): $100.00
CO: $100.00
BTN: $100.00Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP with 5
1 fold, Hero raises to $3.50, CO calls $3.50, 3 foldsFlop: ($8.50) T
Hero bets $6.50, CO calls $6.50Turn: ($21.50) K
(2 players)
Hero bets $15
This example is on the other spectrum of our equity line. We have next to no hand equity against the majority of our opponent’s range, but our fold equity is through the roof. Why? Because villain’s flop calling range is going to miss that turn almost always, and it’s going to hit ours often. Villain’s range is going to look something like 99-33 almost always here. You do get the occasional slowplayed Tx or 22, along with the odd AJ/AQ floating us (which complicates things on the turn), but in general you’re going to have your opponent worried that you now either have Kx, or something like QJ/AQ/AJ which has enough hand equity to make them seriously consider folding a hand like 77.
So with a complete lack of hand equity, it’s still a great spot to bet the turn simply because you can expect folds so often. In the case that you have hand equity, you may still expect folds a significant portion of the time, but you have the added benefit of having outs in case you’re called, which is why in general it’s a good idea not to bluff without either good hand equity, perfect fold equity (like the K in the above hand), or a combination of both.
$100.00 No Limit Hold’em – 6 players
SB: $100.00
BB: $100.00
UTG: $100.00
MP: $100.00
Hero (CO): $100.00
BTN: $100.00Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP with A
1 fold, MP raises to $3.50, Hero reraises to $13, MP calls $9.50Flop: ($27.50) T
Hero bets $20, CO calls $20Turn: ($67.50) Q
Hero bets $67 (all in)
Again, a fantastic turn to barrel. This time we have both hand equity and fold equity working for us. Unless villain has a set, slowplayed KK+ or QT, we’re almost always getting a fold. Add in the fact that even when called, we’re still drawing to a ton of outs, and we have a super-profitable shove.
These are examples of extremes in the spectrum of equity. There is tons of grey area in between, and for the most part those types of spots will involve the actual player in the hand guesstimating how much equity (both fold equity and hand equity) they have in total, and deciding whether or not a bet will be profitable factoring them in his decision. For example:
$100.00 No Limit Hold’em – 6 players
SB: $100.00
BB: $100.00
UTG: $100.00
Hero (MP): $100.00
CO: $100.00
BTN: $100.00Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP with 8
1 fold, Hero raises to $3.50, CO calls $3.50, 3 foldsFlop: ($8.50) K
Hero bets $6.50, CO calls $6.50Turn: ($21.50) J
Hero ???
Is villain capable of folding TT-44? How many Kx hands does he cold call with preflop? Does he slowplay sets? Does he float with air? If so, does he ever bluff-raise turns? What’s our image like? Does villain even pay attention to image?
All these factors should come into play when deciding whether or not to keep barreling in a spot like this. We have next to no hand equity, so we’re relying on our fold equity, and fold equity is something that’s completely dependent on reads and game flow. This is where it gets tough, and the player has to make his own decisions in-game.
In fact, ranges can get so weird at times that seemingly great barreling cards can be horrible to bet, and seemingly bad cards can actually be good. Again, some illustrated examples:
$100.00 No Limit Hold’em – 6 players
SB: $100.00
BB: $100.00
UTG: $100.00
MP: $100.00
CO: $100.00
Hero (BTN): $100.00Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP with K
3 folds, Hero raises to $3.50, SB calls $3.50, 1 foldFlop: ($8.50) J
SB checks, Hero bets $6.50, SB calls $6.50Turn: ($21.50) A
SB checks, Hero bets $15
Let’s assume villain in this hand is a loose fish who likes to float lots, even out of position. Normally, our assumptions about a player’s flop calling range would weight his range towards TT-66, Jx, and the occasional 5x, 44-33 and possibly AQ. In that case, this turn is a great card to barrel for reasons we’ve already covered. We’re getting folds. Lots of them. In this exact case, however, villain’s range may be so heavily-weighted towards Ax that we can actually safely just give up on that specific turn card. Pay attention to what your opponents show down in various spots to help define hand ranges in spots like these so you can make your decisions easier.
Conversely, a seemingly bad card like an offsuit 6 might actually be a pretty good card to barrel; you might expect your opponent to float AQ every time on the flop but start to give you credit on the turn.
$100.00 No Limit Hold’em – 6 players
SB: $100.00
BB: $100.00
UTG: $100.00
MP: $100.00
CO: $100.00
Hero (BTN): $100.00Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP with K
3 folds, Hero raises to $3.50, SB calls $3.50, 1 foldFlop: ($8.50) J
SB checks, Hero bets $6.50, SB calls $6.50Turn: ($21.50) 2
SB checks, Hero bets $15
In this instance, let’s assume villain is a decent thinking regular, and he thinks the same of you. His range on the flop may be relatively similar to a non-thinking weak-tight tag, but his range for continuing past the turn is where it gets interesting. If villain has read an article like this one, or maybe watched a bunch of coaching videos, he may know that the 2 is actually a terrible card to barrel. He may think that you know that, and actually assume that your barreling range is going to be much stronger than it actually is. He may fold a hand as good as 99 here, or maybe floated AQ on the dry J55 flop, but decide it’s too weak to continue with against your turn barrel. I wouldn’t make many of these assumptions about 50nl regs and under, as most of them are more likely to be on the ‘durrr, me has pair’ level rather than thinking through hand ranges and such.
Again, flipping this example around, if you turn an ace, it might actually be a bad card to barrel simply because a good opponent will expect you to bet it with almost your entire bluffing range.
Whether or not to barrel depends heavily on your opponent’s range, but you can always fall back on the mantra: Hand Equity + Fold Equity = Aggression.
5 Responses to “Aggression, equity and double barreling”
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Great article although I really hate your bet sizing in a lot of these examples. I’m assuming you just took the same hand and subbed out different hole cards/flops/turns since the article is about which cards to barrel and not bet sizing when barreling. Kinda nit-picky but I had to find something to complain about
The rest is really solid though, nice work
Yeah, it was all from one HH I copy/pasted, didn’t really think about the sizing for some reason.
I’ll leave sizing for another post I guess
Thanks for commenting Zach, get that prop in the bag!
“Again, flipping this example around, if you turn an ace, it might actually be a bad card to barrel simply because a good opponent will expect you to bet it with almost your entire bluffing range.”
Not sure I follow this, you’re saying we catch the ace, right? So wouldn’t we be getting value from the villain who is calling light. Are you afraid of getting bluff raised and not knowing how to respond? It seems betting when we don’t have and checking when we do have it is reverse poker. If we’re going to be barrelling, don’t we have to balance by betting our good hands too?
Hi Charlie,
In that sentence I meant if we turn an ace when we have air, then we won’t have as much fold equity against a strong thinking regular as we might against a weak regular. They’ll understand it’s a good card to barrel as a bluff and look us up light.
Oh, gotcha, misunderstood.